The Role of Frozen Russian Assets in the Reconstruction of Ukraine Under the Leaked 28 Point Proposal

A 28-point draft peace proposal, reportedly backed by the US administration, has been leaked to the press, sparking a major diplomatic crisis and immediate concern in Kyiv and Europe due to its seemingly favorable terms for Russia. The proposal was presented to Ukrainian officials, who were given a deadline to respond, leading to intensive, high level diplomatic meetings in Geneva and pushback from European allies. While the US maintains the plan was authored by Washington with input from both sides, many of its key provisions closely align with Russia's long standing demands. This leak comes at a sensitive time, as Russia continues slow advances on the battlefield and Ukraine grapples with internal political challenges.

The central and most controversial aspect of the leaked proposal involves significant territorial concessions by Ukraine. The draft plan reportedly requires Ukraine to recognize Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as "de facto Russian," and to withdraw from parts of the Donbas region that it currently still controls. For the other two oblasts that Russia claims to have annexed, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal suggests freezing the conflict along the existing line of contact, effectively allowing Moscow to retain the areas its forces currently occupy. The language describing these territories as "de facto Russian" has been scrutinized as giving a strong nod to the Kremlin's desire for formal recognition of its conquests.

In addition to territorial demands, the plan places major restrictions on Ukraine's future military and political sovereignty. The draft mandates that Ukraine cap the size of its armed forces to a maximum of 600,000 personnel, a substantial reduction of nearly half its current size, and formally enshrine in its constitution a commitment to never join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Furthermore, the plan limits the categories of weaponry the Ukrainian military would be allowed to possess and rules out the presence of foreign troops on its soil. In exchange, Russia would commit to making no future attacks, and Ukraine would receive "reliable security guarantees" that the plan does not fully specify. The draft also includes a provision that over $100 billion in frozen Russian assets would be dedicated to rebuilding Ukraine.

The response from Ukraine and its European allies has been overwhelmingly negative, with many viewing the proposal as a push toward "capitulation" rather than a negotiated peace. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the country faces a "very difficult choice" between losing its dignity and risking the loss of a key partner. He vowed not to "betray" his country and is working to present alternatives and arguments for a more just peace. European leaders, many of whom were reportedly not consulted on the draft, have also expressed deep concern that the plan heavily favors Moscow and undermines Ukraine's sovereignty. They have called for a more active European role in the negotiations and are working to craft an alternative peace framework. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has described the draft as a potential basis for a final settlement, although Moscow may object to some details, such as the use of its frozen assets for reconstruction.

Moving forward, the diplomatic landscape remains highly uncertain as the US and Ukraine have since announced they are working on an "updated and refined peace framework" in response to the strong global backlash. The urgency imposed by the US-backed plan has galvanized European and Ukrainian officials to accelerate their own diplomatic efforts, with European nations presenting an alternative proposal that reportedly omits some of the most pro-Russian points of the original draft. The outcome will depend on the ability of Kyiv and its partners to negotiate substantial revisions that uphold Ukraine's sovereignty and security, while balancing the pressure from its critical Western ally to bring the nearly four year war to an end.